<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN"><html><head><meta content="text/html;charset=UTF-8" http-equiv="Content-Type"></head><body ><div style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><div>Just notice that this email was stuck due to the image attached was too large, and notice the new post by <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Geneva, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.44px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline !important; float: none;">Claus with the SEIR model from Matlab, perhaps Scilabers could make the model more realistic together.<br><br></span>CL<br><div data-zbluepencil-ignore="true" style="" class="zmail_extra"><br><div id="1">============ Forwarded message ============<br>From: Chin Luh Tan <<a target="_blank" href="mailto:chinluh.tan@bytecode-asia.com">chinluh.tan@bytecode-asia.com</a>><br>To: "Users mailing list for Scilab"<<a target="_blank" href="mailto:users@lists.scilab.org">users@lists.scilab.org</a>><br>Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2020 00:03:46 +0800<br>Subject: Re: [Scilab-users] Corona modelling<br>============ Forwarded message ============<br></div><br><blockquote style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 6px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px;"><div><div style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size: 10.0pt;"><div>Hi, <br><br>I just modified Stephane's nice GUI to make it able to load the real world data from internet so that we could overlapped the data to the SIR model to study the effect of locked-down, and the meaning of the coefficients. <br><br>From some reading from the internet, the "Susceptible" population is kind of like difficult to determined, and some suggested to use "current cases" as "optimum model" assuming the condition is recovering. As or the "optional model", the "total population" is being used.<br><br>While "beta" is the transmission coefficient, "gamma" the recovery factor, can anyone explained more details, perhaps in layman term, how to relate these parameters to one country condition, such as the relationship between gamma with the number of days (what days is it referring to), beta "actual meaning" in layman term, and perhaps link with some "technical term" the newspaper always seen on papers? <br><br>I attached the GUI, which will load 3 sets of data from Johns Hopkins Github, (<a href="https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series" target="_blank">https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series</a>)<br>which could be download using following 3 lines directly from the Scilab:<br><br><br>--> fn = getURL('<a href="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv" target="_blank">https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv</a>')</div><div>--> fn = getURL('<a href="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv" target="_blank">https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv</a>')<br></div><div>--> fn = getURL('<a href="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_recovered_global.csv" target="_blank">https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_recovered_global.csv</a>')<br><br>and run the GUI as attached.<br><br><br><br><br><div class="x_1112360482zmail_extra">rgds,<br>CL<br><br><br><div>---- On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 14:13:40 +0800 <b>Stéphane Mottelet <<a href="mailto:stephane.mottelet@utc.fr" target="_blank">stephane.mottelet@utc.fr</a>></b> wrote ----<br></div><br><div><br></div></div></div><div><br></div></div><br></div><blockquote style="border-left: 1.0px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left: 6.0px;margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 5.0px;"><div><p>Hello Heinz,<br></p><p>Here is an interactive version (made for my children last
week...) :<br></p><pre style="font-family: Monospaced;font-style: normal;"><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(100, 174, 100)"><i>// Confinement COVID-19 !</i></span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(100, 174, 100)"><i>// Stephane MOTTELET, UTC</i></span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(100, 174, 100)"><i>// Tue Mar 24 08:55:03 CET 2020</i></span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(100, 174, 100)"><i>// </i></span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(176, 24, 19)">function</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>dydt</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)"><u>sir</u></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>t</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">, </span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>y</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">, </span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>bet</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">, </span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>gam</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">, </span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>N</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>dydt</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">-</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>bet</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">/</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>N</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">*</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>y</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">*</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>y</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>bet</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">/</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>N</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">*</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>y</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">*</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>y</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">-</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>gam</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">*</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>y</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>gam</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">*</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>y</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(176, 24, 19)">endfunction</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(176, 24, 19)">function</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)"><u>draw</u></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>bet</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">, </span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>gam</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">t</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">:</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">:</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">360</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">N</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">6e7</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(160, 32, 240)">if</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(50, 185, 185)">exists</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"gcbo"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">&&</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(50, 185, 185)">is_handle_valid</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">gcbo</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">sb</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">gcbo;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(160, 32, 240)">if</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">sb</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">tag</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">==</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"beta"</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>bet</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">sb</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">value</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>gam</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">findobj</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"gamma"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">value</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(160, 32, 240)">else</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>gam</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">sb</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">value</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>bet</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">findobj</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"beta"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">value</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(160, 32, 240)">end</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">y</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(50, 185, 185)">ode</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">'stiff'</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">N</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">-</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,t,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(50, 185, 185)">list</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)"><u>sir</u>,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>bet</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>gam</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,N</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">))</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">curves</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">findobj</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"curves"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">curves</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">children</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">data</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">:</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">y</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">3</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">:</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">curves</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">children</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">data</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">:</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">y</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">:</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">curves</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">children</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">3</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">data</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">:</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">y</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">:</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(160, 32, 240)">else</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">y</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(50, 185, 185)">ode</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">'stiff'</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">N</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">-</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,t,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(50, 185, 185)">list</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)"><u>sir</u>,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>bet</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>gam</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,N</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">))</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">scf</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">clf</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">plot</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">t,y</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">gce</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">()</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">tag</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"curves"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">gce</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">()</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">children</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">.</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(170, 170, 170)">thickness</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">legend</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"Susceptible"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"Infected"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"Recovered"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">-</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">sb1</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(50, 185, 185)">uicontrol</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"style"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"slider"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"units"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"normalized"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"Position"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.85</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.05</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.48</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"BackgroundColor"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"Callback_Type"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">12</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"sliderstep"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">/</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1000</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">/</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">10</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"min"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.15</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"max"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.3</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"value"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>bet</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"Callback"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"draw"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"tag"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"beta"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(50, 185, 185)">uicontrol</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"style"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"text"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"string"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"$\beta$"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"units"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"normalized"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"Position"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.85</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.125</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.05</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.08</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"BackgroundColor"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"HorizontalAlignment"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"center"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">sb1</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">=</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(50, 185, 185)">uicontrol</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"style"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"slider"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"units"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"normalized"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"Position"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.90</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.2</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.05</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.48</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"BackgroundColor"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"Callback_Type"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">12</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"sliderstep"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">/</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1000</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">/</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">10</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"min"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"max"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">/</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">15</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"value"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(131, 67, 16)"><b>gam</b></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"Callback"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"draw"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"tag"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"gamma"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(50, 185, 185)">uicontrol</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"style"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"text"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"string"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"$\gamma$"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"units"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"normalized"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"Position"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.9</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.125</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.05</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.08</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"BackgroundColor"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span> <span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">[</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">]</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(255, 170, 0)">...</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"HorizontalAlignment"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">"center"</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">;</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(160, 32, 240)">end</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(160, 32, 240)">end</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">clf</span>
<span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)"><u>draw</u></span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">(</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">0.3</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0)">,</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">1</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(92, 92, 92)">/</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(188, 143, 143)">15</span><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(74, 85, 219)">)
</span><br></pre><div class="x_-2117773561moz-cite-prefix">Le 30/03/2020 à 02:14, Heinz Nabielek a
écrit :<br></div><blockquote><pre class="x_-2117773561moz-quote-pre">Colleagues:
is there an straightforward Scilab approach for solving the three coupled nonlinear differential equations of first order given by the Standard Model of Epidemics?
S= number Susceptible: S'=-aSI
I= number Infected: I'=aSI - bI
R= number Recovered: R'=bI
whereby 'a' is the transmission coefficient, 'b' the recovery factor (after Reed-Frost 1928).
Initial values for S, I, R are available.
Thank you
Heinz
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Stéphane Mottelet
Ingénieur de recherche
EA 4297 Transformations Intégrées de la Matière Renouvelable
Département Génie des Procédés Industriels
Sorbonne Universités - Université de Technologie de Compiègne
CS 60319, 60203 Compiègne cedex
Tel : +33(0)344234688
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