[Scilab-users] Corona modelling

[P M]

R = recovered = people who can not infect others anymore...this includes
the dead people...  (or not?)

there are some nice introducton videos at YouTube about this....even
showing the mentioned model...

numberphile:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6nLfCbAzgo
3brown1blue:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

Best regards,
Philipp


Am Mo., 30. März 2020 um 18:57 Uhr schrieb Heinz Nabielek <
heinznabielek at me.com>:

> It is generally assumed that 1% of the infected will die. But that would
> not be part of the modelling, depends mainly on local health services.
>
> Heinz
>
> > On 30.03.2020, at 16:12, Vesela Pasheva <vvp at tu-sofia.bg> wrote:
> >
> > Hello colleagues,
> >
> > I would like to know whether the variable D of dead persons could be
> included in the model considered. Up till now the model considers the
> variables S - susceptible, I - infected and R - recovered. Where do the
> Dead persons D go.
> > Of course i such case the system will be of four differential equations.
> >
> > Best regards
> >
> > Vesela
> >
> > На 30-03-2020 15:38, Heinz Nabielek написа:
> >>> On 30.03.2020, at 08:13, Stéphane Mottelet
> >>> <stephane.mottelet at utc.fr> wrote:
> >>> Hello Heinz,
> >>> Here is an interactive version (made for my children last week...) :
> >>> // Confinement COVID-19 !
> >>> // Stephane MOTTELET, UTC
> >>> // Tue Mar 24 08:55:03 CET 2020....
> >> Great many thanks:
> >> o The SIR model is great and can be readily understood.
> >> o Scilab is great: one line of code where big EXCEL sheet produced a
> >> mess.
> >> o Scilab friends and colleagues are great: instantaneous and real
> >> help.
> >> If the modelling is anywhere near to right, it will soon be over in
> >> Austria (cyan circles are recorded infections). But this is likely
> >> over-optimistic.....
> >> Heinz
> >> ______________
> >> Dr Heinz Nabielek
> >> Schüttelstrasse 77A/11
> >> A-1020 Wien, Österreich
> >> Tel +43 1 276 56 13
> >> cell +43 677 616 349 22
> >> heinznabielek at me.com
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