[Scilab-users] Corona modelling

[Tim Wescott]

Someone was tagging "R" as "removed", which works if it's the aggregate
of "live and no longer contagious" and "dead".

Actually assessing the proportion of R depends on the local health
system, and, to some extent, the size of the peak -- the main reason
we're quarantining is to bring the peak down by broadening it.  The
percentage of 'R' that's dead people is going to depend on how burdened
the health care system is in any locality.

In cold-blooded mathematical terms it's just another dimension to the
modeling, but it's on the output side of the differential equation; it
doesn't have a great impact (as modeled) on the actual dynamics of
those three variables.

On Mon, 2020-03-30 at 17:12 +0300, Vesela Pasheva wrote:
> Hello colleagues,
> 
> I would like to know whether the variable D of dead persons could be 
> included in the model considered. Up till now the model considers
> the 
> variables S - susceptible, I - infected and R - recovered. Where do
> the 
> Dead persons D go.
> Of course i such case the system will be of four differential
> equations.
> 
> Best regards
> 
> Vesela
> 
> На 30-03-2020 15:38, Heinz Nabielek написа:
> > > On 30.03.2020, at 08:13, Stéphane Mottelet
> > > <stephane.mottelet at utc.fr> wrote:
> > > Hello Heinz,
> > > 
> > > Here is an interactive version (made for my children last
> > > week...) :
> > > 
> > > // Confinement COVID-19 !
> > > // Stephane MOTTELET, UTC
> > > // Tue Mar 24 08:55:03 CET 2020....
> > 
> > Great many thanks:
> > 
> > o The SIR model is great and can be readily understood.
> > 
> > o Scilab is great: one line of code where big EXCEL sheet produced
> > a
> > mess.
> > 
> > o Scilab friends and colleagues are great: instantaneous and real
> > help.
> > 
> > If the modelling is anywhere near to right, it will soon be over in
> > Austria (cyan circles are recorded infections). But this is likely
> > over-optimistic.....
> > Heinz
> > 
> > ______________
> > Dr Heinz Nabielek
> > Schüttelstrasse 77A/11
> > A-1020 Wien, Österreich
> > Tel +43 1 276 56 13
> > cell +43 677 616 349 22
> > heinznabielek at me.com
> > _______________________________________________
> > users mailing list
> > users at lists.scilab.org
> > http://lists.scilab.org/mailman/listinfo/users
> 
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-- 

Tim Wescott
www.wescottdesign.com
Control & Communications systems, circuit & software design.
Phone: 503.631.7815
Cell:  503.349.8432