[Scilab-users] Corona modelling

[Heinz Nabielek]

> On 30.03.2020, at 20:37, Tim Wescott <tim at wescottdesign.com> wrote:
> 
> Someone was tagging "R" as "removed", which works if it's the aggregate
> of "live and no longer contagious" and "dead".
> 
> Actually assessing the proportion of R depends on the local health
> system, and, to some extent, the size of the peak -- the main reason
> we're quarantining is to bring the peak down by broadening it.


The usual display of the INFECTED population as a series of normal distributions is not quite right, but a good enough approximation.

It is correct, that the reduction of the transmission coefficient delays the peak and makes it smaller......
Heinz
















>  The
> percentage of 'R' that's dead people is going to depend on how burdened
> the health care system is in any locality.
> 
> In cold-blooded mathematical terms it's just another dimension to the
> modeling, but it's on the output side of the differential equation; it
> doesn't have a great impact (as modeled) on the actual dynamics of
> those three variables.
> 
> On Mon, 2020-03-30 at 17:12 +0300, Vesela Pasheva wrote:
>> Hello colleagues,
>> 
>> I would like to know whether the variable D of dead persons could be 
>> included in the model considered. Up till now the model considers
>> the 
>> variables S - susceptible, I - infected and R - recovered. Where do
>> the 
>> Dead persons D go.
>> Of course i such case the system will be of four differential
>> equations.
>> 
>> Best regards
>> 
>> Vesela
>> 
>> На 30-03-2020 15:38, Heinz Nabielek написа:
>>>> On 30.03.2020, at 08:13, Stéphane Mottelet
>>>> <stephane.mottelet at utc.fr> wrote:
>>>> Hello Heinz,
>>>> 
>>>> Here is an interactive version (made for my children last
>>>> week...) :
>>>> 
>>>> // Confinement COVID-19 !
>>>> // Stephane MOTTELET, UTC
>>>> // Tue Mar 24 08:55:03 CET 2020....
>>> 
>>> Great many thanks:
>>> 
>>> o The SIR model is great and can be readily understood.
>>> 
>>> o Scilab is great: one line of code where big EXCEL sheet produced
>>> a
>>> mess.
>>> 
>>> o Scilab friends and colleagues are great: instantaneous and real
>>> help.
>>> 
>>> If the modelling is anywhere near to right, it will soon be over in
>>> Austria (cyan circles are recorded infections). But this is likely
>>> over-optimistic.....
>>> Heinz
>>> 

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