[Scilab-users] Corona modelling

[RolandB]

As there have already been some cases where persons have been infected twice,
you would have to take into account that only a finite percentage of
infected people become immune and that this immunity might also only last
some finite time.

Another thought experiment would be to randomly test some percentage of
people every some days and remove them by isolation in case they are
infected.

Further, after someone becomes ill or is tested positive, you could
determine the people he was in contact with (to a certain percentage,
because they would not remember everyone they had been in contact with) and
have them tested too. 

Aside from the mathematical problem, I think in order to be able to return
to a somewhat normal life without a high risk of provoking another wave
(maybe several of them), we need tests that detect the virus directly
(antigen or DNA tests, as antibodies take too long to rise) and we need them
ridiculously cheap. We need to be able to test everyone at least twice a
week, preferably every other day or even every day.
I think I have seen Influenza rapid antigen tests for about 3,5 Euro in some
tens quantities. If one were to produce them in hundreds of millions per day
(you know how fast the Chinese can ramp up factories if there is a demand),
such a test should be able to be produced for less than an Euro.
Combined with an app that tracks everyone's path (I know, protection of
privacy is important, but there should be a way to ensure privacy while
allowing to be able to detect if one has been in close vicinity of an
infected person), that should allow us to avoid an oscillating cycle of
reinfection waves.



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